Published January 26, 2022
Why This Might Be The Best Time In 2022 To Sell Your Home.
There has never been a time in Canadian history when there has been a lower amount of homes available for sale than right now.
According to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association, with only 2.0 months of inventory available on the market, Canada would entirely sell out of homes before March Break if no new units were listed. In Ontario, we’d be on track to completely sell out before Valentine’s day, in just 0.9 months.
For context, the national historical average for this metric sits comfortably around 5 months. When comparing year over year, by November 2020 the year-to-date average was 3.4 months of inventory, but in 2021 dropped to just 2.0.
The only four times in Canadian history where the total months of inventory dipped below 2, it has all happened in 2021.
Fast-forward to today, the initial data for January is clear: ultra-low inventory wasn’t left behind in 2021. So far, sales volumes are down 30% year-over-year in the North Simcoe Region (comparing January 1-10), while buyers fight to get their hands on one of the few homes that are left on the market.
Besides making for challenging conditions trying to gain a foothold in the market, there’s another story that’s emerging from this data: This might be the best time to list your home for sale in 2022.
What’s Causing Today’s Ultra-Low Inventory May Not Be Here to Stay
We expect low inventory to continue to constrain the market into the new year – and that’s still true. There is a persistent, housing supply deficit in Canada that won’t disappear until new supply is added to the market.
According to a report from Scotiabank, in 2020 Canada had approximately 424 housing units per 1000 Canadians, whereas the average amongst other G7 countries is 471 housing units per 1000 residents. By their calculations, Canada would need another 1.8 million homes to catch up to the G7 average.
But layered on top of our persistent, systematic low-supply are new challenges brought forth by the Omicron variant.
As of the end of December, The Toronto Real Estate Board reported less than one month of inventory on the market – but in hot areas, like Barrie, the ratio dipped as low as 0.3. In practical terms, this means there are fewer than two weeks of homes for sale in some of the most popular places for buyers.
As we saw just last summer when many potential buyers took a step back from the home search to enjoy life without lockdowns, this created opportunity for those who kept their homes on the market. Striking while your competition is distracted is a great strategy to win in the marketplace.
Once Omnicron has passed its peak, and the lockdowns are over, we predict we’ll see a lot more inventory hit the market. Not to mention the inventory boost we historically see after March break. Sellers that can take advantage of this lull should – it might just be the best time to list in all of 2022.”
While Would-Be Sellers Are Preoccupied, Buyers Are Out in Full Force
Low supply is only one side of the coin as to why this might be the most opportunistic time to list your home in 2022 – we’re also predicting that these market conditions are creating the highest demand, and most intense pricing pressure, we’ll see in all of 2022.
Last year, the spring market came early. By March, we’d already reached the peak of the market, when usually we’d anticipate seeing that in May.This spring’s buyers already know this, and they’re out shopping and putting in offers early. While we anticipate price growth to continue into 2022, the days of 30+ offers on offer night will not last forever.
